One of the big questions facing Walt Disney Co. as it prepares to launch its Disney+ streaming app is how aggressively will it retreat from selling TV shows and movies to other networks and streaming services, in favor of keeping everything on its own outlets. If recent signals from the company are any guide, Disney is going all in on its own apps.
New details learned by The Information suggests Disney’s shift will be broader than is widely understood, affecting TV services around the world, as well as its own children’s cable channels. Disney executives have told some TV networks in Europe and pay TV services in Latin America that it plans to end most of its licensing deals for Disney-made TV shows and movies in the next two or three years, according to two people familiar with the matter. Disney has previously said it would stop licensing movies to Netflix, but it hasn’t given many other specifics about how its licensing will change.
THE TAKEAWAY
• Disney will end most overseas licensing
in the next 2–3 years
• Disney may close some children’s cable
channels overseas
• Disney has offered Netflix a short-term
overseas licensing extension
Meanwhile, Disney executives are discussing shifting many programs off its children’s channels overseas—Disney Channel, Disney Junior and Disney XD—to Disney+. Some executives are concerned that there won’t be enough programs left to fill the channels’ airtime, according to one person familiar with the matter.
With that in mind, Disney is considering shuttering at least a couple of channels in some countries, one of the people said.
Another person said that while channel closures have been discussed, that would be driven more by the channels’ poor ratings. It’s not clear which channels are slated for closure, although Disney Channel is its oldest and best known, suggesting it is likely to survive.
Radical Transformation
These shifts illustrate how Disney’s business is being radically transformed as it pushes into streaming, which is slowly but steadily replacing how people watch television. Like the other big entertainment companies, Disney now relies on cable TV for the bulk of its profits. But people are gradually shifting away from cable towards streaming, a shift which threatens the financial underpinnings of the TV industry. Disney is moving more decisively into streaming than other companies, and with its well-known brand name has more of a chance for success. How it does will give some indication of how others, like AT&T’s WarnerMedia, will do with their own services that are also planned.
Even as Disney signals its intention to pull back on licensing deals, it is looking for opportunities to make some quick dollars in the next 18 months. For instance, Disney has offered Netflix the chance to extend some licensing deals for its service in Europe through the end of next year, the people said. It’s not clear whether Netflix is interested in the temporary licensing deal. The offer is separate from Disney’s high-profile deal to license recently released movies to Netflix in the U.S. That deal has ended, at least for movies to be released from this year on. A Netflix spokesman said the company didn’t comment on speculation. How Disney is revamping its approach to licensing TV shows and movies ahead of the streaming launch is a subject of intense interest on Wall Street right now.
The company has planned an investor day on April 11, when it is expected to provide more details about how its business will evolve with the shift to streaming.
In talking to Wall Street analysts over the past 18 months, Disney CEO Bob Iger has said the company will shift at least some programming to Disney+. Last year he said the streaming service “will become the destination globally for our movie library and our television library.” And earlier this month, Mr. Iger said “in some cases” shows or movies that “could have been on” networks will be moved to its new apps.
“We’re doing that because it’s a capital allocation in the direction of long-term growth for the company,” Mr. Iger said in the February earnings call.
Few Specifics
But Mr. Iger has not made clear exactly how much of its licensing business it will give up. Wall Street research firm Moffett Nathanson estimates that abandoning some streaming deals will cut licensing revenue nearly in half to $2.4 billion in 2022, from the firm’s estimate of $4.45 billion in fiscal 2018. At $4.45 billion, Disney’s licensing revenue accounts for 13% of Disney’s total revenue. Aside from Netflix, Disney licenses Star Wars movies to WarnerMedia’s Turner channels in the
U.S., as well as networks and pay TV services around the world.
Disney won’t necessarily shift all the programs to Disney+. It may move some programs aimed at adult audiences, such as those from ABC studios, to Hulu, the streaming service it will take control of as a result of its purchase of Fox’s entertainment assets. Mr. Iger has talked about Hulu being part of Disney’s group of apps, also including its sports streaming service ESPN+. He has also said Disney plans to expand Hulu internationally.
Replacing all of the $4.45 billion would be tough in the near term: Disney would have to sign up 41 million subscribers paying $9 a month at Disney+ to generate the same amount in subscription revenue . Even including Hulu, which has more than 20 million streaming subscribers, would not offset the revenue that could be lost in licensing.
Disney will likely continue to license some shows, however. One person familiar with the matter said Disney will judge licensing deals on a case by case basis, and could extend some into the next year and beyond—though the deals will be shorter in length. It will pull back on licensing as it rolls out Disney+ and other services in different countries overseas.
Another industry executive who deals with Disney said the company has made it clear that its licensing business will “operate differently” going forward as it seeks to prioritize its streaming service. That means selling fewer programs to channels once its streaming service Disney+ rolls out around the world.
Meanwhile, Disney’s plans for a new streaming service is apparently prompting a reaction from Netflix. The company this week cancelled the last of the shows it buys from Disney’s Marvel studio, with the announcement that “The Punisher” and “Jessica Jones” were both ending.
