Very much like MultiChoice, Viaplay is a Swedish pay-tv provider with roughly 6 million subscribers and has been a dominant force in Nordic market. Canal+ initially started it's bid at 12% before hiking it to 29% following a restructure which led it to exit US, UK and Baltics.
Under Swedish laws and the surrounding regions in which Viaplay operates, when a company reaches the 30% to 33% threshold they are required by law to acquire remaining shares (including minorities). Very much like South African laws where the threshold sits at 35%.
Unlike South Africa's strict foreign regulations which caps Canal+ at 20% there's no hurdles for them to obtain full ownership except for let's say PPF, a Czech Republic investment firm. They also have a 29% stake and could as well serve as an obstacle in their pursuit.
Similar to when Disney attempted to acquire Comcast's 30% stake in Hulu from time and time again. PPF may not make it easy for Canal+ they could retain their stake in the hopes for more money as Canal+ buys other shareholders or serve as a possible bidder with them also gobbling 29%.
If one had to guess when Canal+ will look to acquire Viaplay perhaps by the fall of 2025 to early 2026 as they set their sights on MultiChoice. It's likely that shareholders want Canal+ to finish it's MultiChoice acquisition before pursuing any other corporate takeovers.
As of September 2024, MultiChoice's foothold in Africa has been under siege with its consumer base that plummeted to 19 million. Initially residing in 24 million, combining it's reach with Canal+ would have the broadcaster reach its 50 million markup but a tie-up to Viaplay is the final piece they need right now.
Viaplay very much like MultiChoice has been in financial distress and have been reliant on investors (particularly Canal+) for stability. A takeover would help them minimise operation costs and bulk up against giants like Netflix who despite reaching 300 million households have its consumer base minimised in mentioned regions.
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